NAFTA has fostered a thriving North American energy market that currently supports millions of U.S. jobs and keeps costs down for American consumers. If negotiators agree to eliminate or weaken NAFTA’s Investor-State Dispute Settlement, ISDS, or if negotiations break down, leading to the U.S.’ consideration of withdrawing from NAFTA, we would open the door for Chinese and Russian energy interests to exert their influence right here in North America.

That’s a national security outcome that no proponent of U.S. “energy dominance” would understand or support.

NAFTA eliminated tariffs on several oil and natural gas products from gasoline to crude oil and motor fuel blending stock between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. In so doing, it has enabled each of our nations to benefit from one another’s considerable energy resources and technical capacities.

Consider America’s relationship with Mexico. The U.S. is a net importer of crude oil from Mexico. Yet, much of that product is refined in American facilities — which are far more efficient than those south of the border — and exported back to Mexico. In fact, Mexico receives roughly a fifth of all refined petroleum product exports from the U.S., including more than half of all finished gasoline exports.

Our southern neighbor is also a significant and growing importer of American natural gas, accounting for a whopping 60.2 percent of America’s natural gas exports. The reason for this is easy to see — Mexico’s demand for energy is growing quickly. And the U.S. is not only the world’s top producer of natural gas, we are also much further along in developing our gas resources than Mexico.

Canada, meanwhile, accounts for 61 percent of America’s crude oil exports and approximately a third of natural gas exports.

This economic relationship has been enormously beneficial for Americans. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently estimated that trade with Canada and Mexico supports nearly 14 million American jobs. And since North American energy market supply chains are integrated, they are more efficient and cost-effective than markets that are separated by national borders. In this way, NAFTA has helped lower energy prices for U.S. consumers.

There’s also a significant geopolitical advantage to this relationship. In particular, NAFTA has helped to create a built-in advantage for the U.S. to access Mexico’s newly opened energy market. NAFTA’s investment protections and ISDS, for example, have enabled the success of U.S. oil and natural gas companies winning blocks that Mexico is offering to foreign investors for the first time in over 70 years. U.S. companies won 15 percent of the 47 blocks awarded to foreign investors since 2015, while companies from Russia and China won only a combined 13 percent of these blocks.

That could change quickly if NAFTA falls apart. One can imagine a scenario where, by 2030, America’s diminished role in Mexico’s energy economy forces that nation to rely more on investment from Russia and China.

That’s precisely what happened after America ceased to be the biggest investor in Venezuela’s oil sector. Within a few years, China and Russia had swooped in, loaning the nation $60 billion to strengthen its energy industry.

In a post-NAFTA world, Mexico would still seek to develop their resources, but could easily shift to using funds from Russia and China to dramatically increase its own production and refining capacity, and making them less reliant on the U.S. as a result.

In very short order, Mexico could find itself more closely aligned with two of America’s biggest geopolitical rivals — a major setback that can only harm America’s move towards energy self-sufficiency.

Fortunately, U.S. trade representatives can avoid that scenario by ensuring that NAFTA is not only preserved, but strengthened. Ideally, a renegotiated trade pact would maintain an open energy market between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada indefinitely by making NAFTA permanent.

On top of that, negotiators should retain and strengthen the ISDS provisions that protect the investments of American companies that do business in Canada and Mexico.

Today’s vibrant, integrated North American energy market has served Americans well for years, while also keeping our nation’s global energy rivals at bay. None of this would be possible without NAFTA. Failing to preserve this valuable trade pact would leave America less prosperous, less secure, and less influential around the world.

Kyle Isakower is the vice president for regulatory and economic policy at the American Petroleum Institute.

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