Tesla will miss a key Model 3 production target, analysts say

Brace yourselves for Tesla Inc. missing a key production goal for the Model 3 and even missing the mark with the Model S and Model X, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Monday.

The analysts, led by David Tamberrino, kept their rating on Tesla TSLA, -0.32%  stock at a sell with a price target of $205, which implies a 36% downside.

Tesla shares extended their losses to a fifth straight session on Monday, bringing March losses to more than 7%, which would be Tesla’s steepest monthly loss since July.

Tesla is likely to announce first-quarter deliveries around April 3, a few days after the end of the first quarter. Unlike other car makers, which report monthly sales and often break it down by region, Tesla reports quarterly deliveries, its proxy for sales, and production, breaking it down by model only.

All eyes are on production numbers for the Model 3, viewed as Tesla’s ticket to its expansion plan, which includes adding new vehicle models to its lineup, selling solar roofs, and the ability to produce vehicles at an annual rate of 500,000 by the end of next year.

Production of the car, launched in July, has inched toward Tesla’s most modest and twice postponed predictions.

Tesla originally said it would ramp up Model 3 production to 5,000 sedans a week in 2017 and then on to 10,000 a week in 2018, but it pushed back its 2017 goal to late in the first quarter of 2018 and then again to end of second quarter.

The company’s current estimate is being able to make 2,500 Model 3s a week by the end of the first quarter, with 5,000 a week by the end of second quarter.

However, investors have been tracking down the Model 3 ramp using VIN registration as proxy, which implies a production around 7,000 cars so far in the quarter, the Goldman analysts said in the note.

“Assuming that the last few weeks in March have a similar 1k/week production rate, we see total 1Q18 Model 3 production registering at approximately 9,500 vehicles,” they said.

“That production rate would fall below guidance of exiting the quarter at a 2,500/week run-rate – though the company likely tests its ability to increase its line-speed at the end of this month given a similar extrapolation at the conclusion of 4Q17,” the analysts said.

Deliveries are likely to clock in around 7,000 for the quarter, the analysts said. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Model 3 deliveries around 13,800 for the three-month period.

The Goldman Sachs analysts said Model S and Model X deliveries are also likely to disappoint. They forecast combined Model S and Model X deliveries of 22,000 for the quarter, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12% and quarter-on-quarter decline of 23%.

“We believe this is likely the result of a seasonally softer 1Q, but also as 4Q17 production was negatively impacted by the shift of manufacturing labor to the Model 3 production and as the company sold down inventory” in the second half of the year, they said.

The analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Model S and Model X deliveries around 25,100 in the first quarter.

“Overall, we believe this points to Tesla tracking slightly below its 2018 guidance (approximately 100k Model S/X deliveries),” the Goldman analysts said.

Tesla shares have gained 21% in the past 12 months, compared with 14% gains for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.09%  and 18% gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.DJIA, +0.43%