Iran terrorist attack shows regime opponents see ‘unique opportunity,’ experts say

Militants disguised as soldiers opened fire at the procession of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard while they marched through the oil-rich city of Ahvaz.

LONDON — The crackle of gunfire has ceased, but questions swirl around who carried out an attack on a military parade in southern Iran that left at least 25 people dead.

Militants disguised as soldiers opened fire at the procession of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard while they marched through the city of Ahvaz on Saturday.

Arab separatists and the Islamic State group have both claimed responsibility for the bloodshed, while Iranian leaders implicated Gulf countries and the United States — promising a “devastating” response.

All have offered scant evidence for their accusations and claims.

What the attack does show, however, is that Iranian opponents of various stripes see this as a “unique opportunity” to further their cause, according to Sanam Vakil, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins School of International Studies Europe.

“More people are recognizing that Iran is coming under increasing pressure,” she said.

This pressure comes from a multitude of sources both abroad and at home.

President Donald Trump has taken a much harder line on the Islamic republic, pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal signed under the Obama administration.

In July, Reuters reported that Trump wants to club together with Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, to create an “Arab NATO” to contain Iran.

Iran is already locked in a series of proxy conflicts with Saudi Arabia. The two regional powers — Iran is largely Shiite Muslim, while Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni Muslim — are vying for military and political influence in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.

Some of these conflicts have involved Iranian-backed forces fighting against ISIS, something that has resulted in a certain amount of “blowback” at home, Vakil said.

Last June, for example, ISIS claimed responsibility for twin attacks on Iran’s parliament and the mausoleum of Islamic republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The extremist group also said it was behind Saturday’s attack in Ahvaz.

Add to this pressure cooker a population that has been taking to the streets in defiance of their regime’s strict control of political freedoms.

All of these destabilizing forces have created a perfect storm for opponents to exploit, according to Vakil, who is also a senior consulting research fellow at London’s Chatham House think tank.

“This is a unique opportunity in Iran for people to try to take advantage of perceived Iranian weakness,” she said.

Another opposition movement that claimed responsibility for Saturday’s attack was an Arab separatist group called the Ahvaz National Resistance.

This movement seeks a separate state in Khuzestan, the oil-rich region where most of Iran’s Arab minority live. Ahvaz, where Saturday’s attack took place, is the regional capital.

This community has long felt neglected by the Persian-dominated central government in Tehran. They have been hit particularly hard by Iran’s economic and unemployment problems, and they have suffered drought and electricity shortages.

Armed opposition groups have played on this discontent to attempt to drum up support for their actions which have included attacks on oil pipelines in the region.

“Grievances caused by internal mismanagement and short-sightedness could be exploited by regional actors and exacerbated by global powers,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.

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