Hurricane Rosa Leaves Record Amounts of Rain in Arizona

Rosa was like the old friend who’s a bit unruly so you hope they don’t stay too long, but after they’re gone you’re glad they were here.

The hurricane remnants that blew through the state earlier this week were definitely disruptive. The storm caused flooding, power outages, school closures and forced the rescue of several motorists who had driven into trouble.

But in causing that disruption, Rosa delivered much-needed rain to many parts of the parched state.

Heavy rain in the Phoenix area has necessitated the release of water from Tempe Town Lake, Oct. 3, 2018. Arizona Republic

Rainfall is a one day record

The 2.36 inches of rain that fell Tuesday shattered the record for rainfall on Oct. 2 (the previous mark was .60 of an inch in 1981). It was also the wettest October day on record for the city and the eighth wettest day of all time, according to National Weather Service records that go back to 1895.

For Phoenix, the 2.75 inches of rain recorded at Sky Harbor Airport from Sunday, when the first showers from the storm hit, through Tuesday night erased the city’s year-to-date rainfall deficit. Through Oct. 2, the city has recorded 6.08 inches of rain in 2018 (normal for this point is 5.96 inches).

Before the storm, Phoenix was 2.52 inches below normal for the year.

Those 2.75 inches of rain were also more than the 2.63 inches the city saw during the 2018 monsoon season. An average monsoon season for Phoenix is just 2.71 inches.

The rainfall was spread throughout the Phoenix area with some parts of the northeast Valley seeing more than three inches of rain on Tuesday alone.

Statewide impact

Other parts of the state felt the impact of Rosa as well.

Parts of the Tohono O’odham Nation saw widespread flooding. The waters compromised the integrity of the Menagers Lake Dam near Sells.

Flagstaff recorded 2.32 inches from Sept. 30-Oct. 2 while Yuma picked up 1.30 inches. Tucson wasn’t as hard hit as expected with just .31 of an inch.

Rosa even left behind enough moisture to enhance rain chances for the Phoenix area through Thursday morning.

More hurricane rains?

So, what’s next? Is the Phoenix area headed into another dry spell?

October is often a transitional month between the active monsoon season and the winter patterns where we sometimes get weather systems coming from the west to bring rain.

There was some hope that another Pacific hurricane, Sergio, could enhance our chances for more rain, but it seems to be headed in the wrong direction.

Larry Hopper, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Phoenix, said it was unlikely Sergio would make an impact in Arizona.

The remnants of Hurricane Rosa hit the Phoenix area Oct. 2, 2018, flooding the Indian Bend Wash Greenbelt in Scottsdale. Michael Chow and Thomas Hawthorne, azcentral.com

“At the moment, the National Hurricane Center has Sergio taking a more westward track into the east Pacific,” Hopper said.

Hopper said there was a chance of more rain this weekend, but it would be the showers and thunderstorms we usually see. It’s not likely to be the type of hurricane-fueled storms we saw earlier this week.

“This weekend we have a disturbance from the west that will give us another chance for some showers and thunderstorms, probably Sunday into Monday,” Hopper said. “That disturbance will basically block Sergio from being able to turn back to the north, northeast.”

Drought relief?

After a few abnormally dry seasons, the state is experiencing at least some form drought.

The monsoon season offered some relief, and the rains from Rosa should help.

Mike Crimmins, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who also works with the U.S. Drought monitor, said improvements in the short-term drought conditions were likely.

But, he added, it’s certainly not over yet, even with the drenching much of the state received.

“Since it took a season or two to get into this drought, we want to see some good solid winter precipitation on top of the monsoon to fully start to erase drought conditions across Arizona,” Crimmins said. “It took a while to get into it, it should take a while to get out of it, even with good heavy rain.”

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