According to a recent Chinese Report: blockchain projects go from boom to bust in 15 months. That’s a lifecycle for a crypto startup of 450 days.

A Chinese government analysis has concluded the average lifespan of a blockchain project is 1.22 years, sources report May 28.

As Bitcoin remains in a cloud of manipulation, ICOs are set to raise more in 2018 than in 2017, inspite of regulatory crackdowns.

This even as ICO rankings and statistics of high failure rates, are coming to light on the fate of most of these projects.

According to a recent report: 902 startups that launched ICOs last year, 46 percent have already failed, despite having raised over US$104 million, according to a survey conducted by cryptocurrency news site Bitcoin.com.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin reckons that nine out of ten token startups are doomed to failure, explains Futurism. Ethereum is not likely to fail any time soon, as the most widely adopted dApp platform with enterprise level adoption.

Casualties of the Bitcoin Hype Cycle

The exponential boom of altcoins, token startups, blockchain startups and ICOs means there’s an epic increase in fraud, as regulators attempt to crack down including the SEC in America.

Let’s however be crystal clear about their fate.

For the over 80,000 blockchain projects ever launched globally, only 8% are still being actively maintained and the average life span is only around 1.22 years, says an official at the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT).

How good or lucky or useful does your product have to be to stay alive in such a business ecosystem? Herein lies the problem of blockchain innovation, while startups are abundant, enterprise level companies are increasing adopting the tech into the Cloud, and even considering how to adopt cryptocurrencies into their core products. In a global innovation sector dominated by monopolies, duopolies and new funds like Softbank, the way innovation is driven forwards has changed immensely.

Hacking, Fraud and Failed Startups

Data from ICO tracking site TokenData shows that 142 of the startups that launched ICOs last year failed at the funding stage while another 276 eventually faded into obscurity or simply took the money and ran. Blockchain startups need to know the odds, and need to fully understand how to make it in such a crowded space.

In a study released in January, Ernst & Young said more than 10 percent of funds raised through ICOs were either lost or stolen in hacker attacks. Even as fraud can occur for investors, cybersecurity remains a legitimate threat to all interested parties.

The professional services firm reviewed 372 ICOs which raised a combined US$3.7 billion. Of that amount, US$400 million had been stolen, Reuters said. Also with the pace of innovation, new iterations of what a crypto startup looks like makes older ones quickly obsolete. The Ethereum founder recently said:

Buterin explained that while the current first wave of tokens will soon give way to an improved second generation, those tokens that emerge in 2018 and 2019 will be better, simply due to experimentation that is going on right now.

It’s easy to get caught up in the hype, with a kind of innovation FOMO, however it’s clear there are a lot of bad or poorly thought out token startups. You need expertise, talent, great marketing and great market-fit timing to succeed with a product that can scale your token startup to becoming ubiquitous with a vision young people can relate to. The odds are against you if you are a crypto startup, you exist in a sea of blockchain startups where the winners win big and most of the losers go home fast.